😬AOC’s Munich faceplant.
Plus, why vulnerable Republicans can’t easily break with President Trump.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Some of you texted me last week about missing your usual dose of “The Inner Circle.” We had a sudden, tragic death in the family — so I was off the grid while traveling back to Ohio. I’m back to my normal schedule this week. Thanks for your support and your patience.
In today’s edition, AOC steps in it on the world stage. But first…
WITH ME OR AGAINST ME — With the midterms around the corner, and President DONALD TRUMP’s approval numbers still slumped amid economic concerns, vulnerable Republicans are privately asking themselves a tricky question: Can they distance themselves from their party leader and survive politically?
The House, after all, just lifted a ban on all votes challenging Trump’s unpopular tariffs. And Democrats are plotting to force roll calls in the coming weeks that put Republicans on record — votes that have the potential to embarrass the president by dividing the party.
If this were any other year — and, to be fair, probably any other president — this wouldn’t even be an open question or debate. When one party controls all of Washington and is facing a brutal midterm, we typically see vulnerable members break ranks and tout their independence. That’s what happened in 2022, when some vulnerable Democrats were high-tailing it away from JOE BIDEN, even questioning whether to campaign with their leader. (Remember that Rep. MARCY KAPTUR ad declaring she “doesn’t work for Joe Biden”?)
But Trump is a different beast. Forget about allowing rank-and-file to vote and speak their districts. This president has always demanded complete loyalty, even from lawmakers facing difficult re-elections. What’s more, the GOP’s political graveyard is strewn with politicians who sought to create “a little distance” from Trump — and who ultimately were buried by that impossible little tap dance gone sideways.
I WAS REMINDED RECENTLY of Trump’s reaction to Democrats flipping more than 40 seats during the blue wave of 2018. In a press conference the day after, he mocked House Republicans who sought to keep him at arm’s length, laying the blame for the upset squarely at their feet.
He even name checked the losers, from the late MIA LOVE of Utah (“Mia Love gave me no love and she lost.”), to BARBARA COMSTOCK of Virginia (“She could have won that race, but she didn’t want to have any embrace…. She lost, substantially lost.”)
On the one hand, the president makes a valid point: The base still has his back. And even without Trump lashing out — or his team of enforcers jumping down GOP critics’ throats — Republicans have to be careful about alienating needed GOP voters as they seek to appeal to the middle. Criticize the president too much and GOP voters may decide to stay home — or send donations elsewhere.
But one Republican all too familiar with this dynamic, Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), texted me today that the White House needs to loosen up for its own good. Members like Bacon argue that a longer leash for lawmakers would actually benefit Trump , safeguarding his majorities and thus protecting him from a Democrat majority’s roving impeachment inquiries.
Bacon’s take: “There’s no doubt that President Trump demands loyalty and seeks revenge more than any recent president. But, I believe this is to his and the GOP’s detriment. He and the GOP would have higher favorable[s] if Congress showed more independence. I encourage colleagues to vote their conscience and what is best for country and their districts.”
Even Bacon knows this is easier said than done. He decided to retire this year rather than face re-election. And let’s be clear, this logic — while sound — hasn’t convinced the the one person who sets the ton on these matters: the president himself.
THE AWKWARD SITUATION has started bubbling to the surface in recent weeks — and will only grow more pronounced as we near Election Day. When perhaps the most vulnerable Senate Republican, SUSAN COLLINS of Maine, joined with Democrats in January on a War Powers resolution curbing Trump’s military actions, the president said she (and other Republicans defectors) should “never be elected to office again.”
More recently, the president has been privately grumbling about Hill Republicans who spoke out about his now-deleted social media post depicting the Obamas as monkeys. According to a weekend CNN story, Trump groused that NRSC Chairman TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) should have raised concerns to him privately instead of publicly — and that Sen. KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.), who joined Scott in his censure, is dead to him. (Obviously, neither Scott nor Britt are vulnerable Republicans — but the president’s private anger nonetheless is illuminating here.)
Meanwhile, Trump’s enforcers stand at the ready. People like right-wing provocateur LAURA LOOMER, who this weekend proudly touted that she personally gave Trump a list of disloyal Republicans.
THE MESSAGE HAS FOUND ITS MARK. Anticipating blowback, even House Republicans who privately loathe Trump’s tariffs regime thought twice last week about defying the president. After Trump warned on Truth Social that Republicans who break on his signature economic policies “will seriously suffer the consequences come election time,” only six House Republicans ultimately sided with Democrats on a resolution cubing his tariffs on Canada.
Could that number grow, as Democrats tee up more votes this year? Possibly… If more Republicans decide self-preservation outweighs loyalty — and that their defections are worth the blowback they’ll assuredly receive.
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AOC’s ROUGH RIDE IN MUNICH — Now, about ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ’S much-hyped trip to the Munich Security Conference this weekend. Let’s just say, it didn’t go as planned…
Days after her appearance, the New York Democrats’ flubs are still making the rounds on unforgiving social media. It’s a reminder of the high stakes for potential 2028 hopefuls, as Republicans circle like sharks, eager to seize on any misstep to take the opposition down.
Just a recap: AOC faceplanted on a question about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Known for her self-assured swagger and being quick on her feed, she stuttered, visibly squirmed and barfed out a word salad of a response. (The clip is legit painful to watch.)
Republicans are also positively salivating over AOC’s suggestion that it’s somehow a bad thing that MARCO RUBIO urged European leaders to protect and defend Western Civilization. (“Western Civilization,” after all, means democracy and freedom…) And she stepped in while trying to rebuke the president for NICOLÁS MADURO’s capture.
“Maduro canceled elections. He was an anti-democratic leader. That doesn’t mean that we can kidnap a head of state and engage in acts of war just because the nation is below the equator,” she said.
Earth to AOC: Venezuela is above of the equator.
We all knew AOC’s foreign policy chops paled in comparison to her social media and grassroots savvy on domestic, populist issues. But it’s a bleak reminder that just showing up on the world stage doesn’t make you an expert.
The most shocking part of it all, according to my Democratic co-host on The Huddle, DAN TURRENTINE, was AOC’s apparent retreat after the blunders. (Though to be fair to AOC, one of her defenders pointed out to me after this published that she held a 30-minute press conference on the ground with Rep JASON CROW (D-Colo.) — so she’s still mixing it up with some reporters.)
“What I found fascinating was how she and her team reacted: She canceled media appearances on Saturday. There was nobody online defending her,” Dan said, pointing out that Trump always has allies at the ready in moments like these. “If Trump does something like this … his army — if you even so much as mock him — comes back at you with a baseball bat. Right? She had no defenders.”
Dan added: “She froze not just on the stage, but she froze off the stage…And to me, that was a sign that she is not ready for this.”
The good news for AOC? It’s early, and her Democratic supporters aren’t likely to abandon her over a few gaffes. What’s more, most American voters aren’t exactly foreign policy wonks themselves — which leads me to this positive spin from Matthew Yglesias that’s making the rounds today:
But mark my words: These blunders will almost certainly resurface — especially if AOC has bigger ambitions for 2028. And not just with Republicans. Other 2028 Democratic hopefuls will eagerly remind donors about her slip-ups to take her down a few notches — if they aren’t already.
LOL. Sure, a response to a question on China/Taiwan will cripple her chances in 2028. I think that's a "you wish!"
My sympathy for such a loss! It is hard to go through such a tragedy.